Madagascar’s military mutiny raises alarms as President Rajoelina’s control is questioned amid a potential coup.
Madagascar’s Political Crisis Unfolds: A Closer Look
On October 12, 2025, Madagascar’s CAPSAT unit took control of the capital, Antananarivo, joining widespread protests against the government. These events raise questions about a potential coup, as President Andry Rajoelina’s position becomes increasingly precarious. While CAPSAT claims to be responding to public demands, the removal of government officials suggests a shift in power dynamics.
The military’s involvement comes after weeks of public unrest due to chronic infrastructure failures, including power and water outages. Despite the government’s attempt to quell protests by dismissing Prime Minister Christian Ntsay, the unrest continued, leading to the military’s intervention. The situation mirrors the 2009 mutiny, where CAPSAT played a significant role in regime change.
Conflicting Reports on President Rajoelina’s Status
Reports of President Rajoelina’s departure from Madagascar add to the uncertainty. While official sources assert that he remains in the country, the flight of key allies, including former adviser Mamy Ravatomanga to Mauritius, suggests otherwise. CAPSAT’s denial of staging a coup contrasts with their decisive actions, which include installing a new military chief.
The leadership vacuum left by the removal of the Senate president and the appointment of General Demosthene Pikulas as the new military chief further complicates the political landscape. CAPSAT’s commander, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, continues to deny any coup intentions, emphasizing their commitment to addressing public grievances.
BREAKING NEWS:
Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina has reportedly fled to France following escalating Gen Z–led protests in the country. The unrest intensified as young demonstrators demanded political change, denouncing poor governance and economic hardship.
The situation… pic.twitter.com/tLN4KzCG4w
— African Hub (@AfricanHub_) October 13, 2025
Implications and Future Prospects for Madagascar
The immediate impact of these developments is political instability, with potential for further unrest and disruption of government services. The long-term implications could include the establishment of a military-backed government or a negotiated transition, both of which may erode Madagascar’s democratic institutions.
International observers are closely monitoring the situation, with potential sanctions on the horizon. The economic and social consequences of ongoing protests and military involvement are concerning, as they threaten to disrupt foreign investment and aid, critical to Madagascar’s development.
Sources:
2025 Malagasy mutiny – Wikipedia